Pakistani Intelligence Warns Of Further Taliban Suicide Attacks

Pak Intel warns of potential Taliban attacks on Karachi airport/sensitive installations.

Synopsis: Pakistani intelligence agencies warn that the Taliban may launch more suicide attacks on sensitive installations across the nation. The intelligence agencies informed the Interior Ministry that November would be a crucial month as al-Qaeda and Taliban-linked terrorists have planned to carry out attacks on Jinnah International Airport Karachi, and also the offices of various ministries in Islamabad, Daily Times reported on 25 Nov.

The security sources told the newspaper on condition of anonymity that terrorists have planned to attack major cities in retaliation to the ongoing operation in the troubled northwestern tribal belt bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan's tribal region has been the scene of some of the worst fighting between Pakistani forces and Taliban-linked militants in recent months. Sources also noted that the Taliban has dispatched suicide bombers' teams to the major cities including Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. The authorities have subsequently directed law enforcement agencies to take immediate action to ensure security at the airports and the ministries' offices. The intelligence network and law enforcement agencies have reportedly been put on high alert. Pakistan has suffered a wave of violence, and thousands have lost their lives since the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf joined the US-led 'war on terror' following the 9/11 attacks. Former Prime Minister Bhutto was killed in a suicide gun and bomb attack in Rawalpindi in December 2007.

Fifty-five people were killed when a truck loaded with explosives blew up outside the five-star Marriott hotel in the heart of Islamabad on September 20. More than 2,000 people were killed in Pakistan in 2007 in terrorist attacks that the government blames on militants opposed to its support of the US-led campaign against terrorism.

Analysis/Road Ahead: Pakistani intelligence warning of approaching Taliban suicide attacks on sensitive targets such as Karachi airport and several key federal ministries in Islamabad will serve to amplify fear among the populace and intensify Pakistani security agencies alertness. Moreover such intimidated threats could spark calls to bolster the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). The recent deactivation of the political wing of the ISI which saw Pakistani leaders proclaim the agency could now focus on external threats may provoke calls for the political wing to be reactivated to again focus on internal threats. Revelation of imminent suicide attacks

publicized in the media will ignite additional anti-American rhetoric with claims the US missile strikes aroused the Taliban to threaten these attacks on Pakistani institutions. Whether or not actual attacks transpire media reporting will incite Pakistan’s populace to blame the US for provoking the Taliban. The Taliban will conceivably defer planned attacks or strike alternate targets.

Sources: Press TV, Zeenews, Middle East Times, ANI, AKI, 25 Nov 08

Senior Al-Qaeda Chemical Weapons Expert 'Killed' In Missile Strike

Abu Khabab al-Masri reportedly killed in US missile strike in Pakistan.

Synopsis: Reports from Pakistan say a leading al-Qaeda chemical weapons expert, Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, has been killed in a missile strike. Taliban officials in the tribal area of South Waziristan confirmed to the BBC that he was killed in a missile strike that left at least six people dead. The US , which has a reward of $5m on his head, said it had no information. He was wrongly reported to have been killed in 2006 in a strike aimed at al-Qaeda deputy head Ayman al-Zawahiri. The pre-dawn strike targeted a house near a mosque in the village of Azam Warsak , 20km west of the main town in South Waziristan , Wana. It was suspected to be a strike by US forces, with residents saying they had heard US drones, but this has not been confirmed. Pakistani military spokesman Maj Gen Abbas said it was still awaiting "authentic information" from the area. Also known as Abu Khabab al-Masri, is an Egyptian national. The US government's Rewards for Justice Website says he is "an explosives expert and poisons trainer working on behalf of al-Qaeda". It says he trained hundreds of militants in chemical and explosives operations at a camp at Derunta in Afghanistan . The BBC in Islamabad says the militant was considered part of Osama Bin Laden's inner circle and was said to be in charge of efforts to gain access to, or develop, weapons of mass destruction. Local residents said the house targeted belonged to a local tribesman and suspected militants used to stay there. The US is reported to have carried out a number of drone missile attacks in the tribal regions. Pakistan has complained the attacks could damage bilateral relations. The latest strike came shortly before Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani was due to meet US President Bush in Washington . White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said she had no information about the incident. In recent months the US and its allies have pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in military and other forms of assistance to help Pakistan 's new government tackle militancy in border tribal areas.

Analysis/Road Ahead: Multiple news sources cite Abu Khabab al-Masri’s death by US missile strike in Pakistan , if confirmed; his death would pose a potentially substantial setback to al-Qaeda as al-Masri was considered an essential dynamic in al-Qaeda’s quest for weapons of mass destruction. An alleged member of Osama Bin Laden's inner circle his death would represent a direct blow to the al-Qaeda leadership and could indicate Osama Bin Laden's own security is at risk as intelligence revealed al-Masri’s location, so Bin Laden is conceivably also susceptible to discovery. While al-Masri was erroneously reported killed in 2006 confirmation of his death is vital otherwise al-Qaeda’s propaganda machine will illuminate/exploit the US failure. This missile strike was also significant as its timing occurred just prior to Pakistan ’s Premier meeting President Bush. Imaginably this missile strike intervention in Pakistan influenced Pakistan ’s Premier’s to vow to fight "extremists/terrorists" and to secure its porous border with Afghanistan .

Sources: BBC, The Scotsman, Times Online, Turkish Press, AFP, NYT, KUNA, Daily Times, Press TV, Reuters, AP, Inter Services Public Relations, 28 Jul 08